房地产经济学研究——陈杰博士

7月11日，美国抵押贷款巨头IndyMac银行倒闭被接管；房利美与房地美危机四起；国会参议院通过房地产市场刺激法案。

IndyMac银行不堪挤兑遭查封。美国加利福尼亚州的IndyMac银行为了减少损失，关闭多处办事处并裁减职员，导致大批客户到该银行取款，银行不堪大规模挤兑重负，于7月11日被联邦监管机构查封。IndyMac银行已经是今年以来在次贷危机中“倒下”的第五家美国银行。截至今年3月底，IndyMac银行的资产为320亿美元。IndyMac银行是储蓄管理局监管下遭接管的全美最大储蓄银行，也是美国历史上第二大遭关闭的金融机构。美国储蓄管理局发表声明称，监管当局认为IndyMac银行已经无法满足存款者的要求，所以决定查封银行资产，将银行业务交由联邦储蓄保险公司接管。据联邦监管机构估计，接管IndyMac银行可能将导致联邦储蓄保险公司遭受40亿美元到80亿美元的损失。联邦储蓄保险公司表示，IndyMac银行被接管后计划于7月14日重新开业，名称将更改为“IndyMac联邦银行”。

同一天，两家美国最大的房贷机构房利美(FannieMae)与房地美(FreddieMac)遭遇危机，股价开盘后暴跌五成。当天房利美和房地美股价分别收于每股10.25美元和7.75美元，股价跌至17年来的低点，与去年８月份相比跌幅超过８０％，而今年年初，两公司股价还分别高达40美元和35美元。房利美和房地美属于美国政府支持的特殊金融机构，主要业务是住房抵押贷款。房利美和房地美是美国住房抵押贷款的主要资金来源，所经手的住房抵押贷款总额约为5万亿美元，几乎占了美国住房抵押贷款总额的一半。虽然房利美和房地美对外宣称公司资金充足，但外界并不这么认为。雷曼兄弟公司的分析师警告，如果这两家公司破产，美国住房抵押贷款市场很可能在短期内完全停滞。美国国会两党议员也纷纷表示，房利美和房地美的规模实在太大，大到政府不能任其倒闭。

国会参议院通过房地产市场刺激法案。为了缓解房地产市场所受到的冲击，美国国会参议院7月11日以63票赞成、5票反对的表决结果批准总额3000亿美元的救市计划，以帮助数十万无力支付月供的购房者保留房产，同时通过加强对抵押贷款公司的监管缓解地产市场所受的冲击。根据该计划，无力支付月供的购房者可以通过还贷重组，参与由联邦住房管理局提供的30年期固定利率还贷计划。相关机构预计，这一计划将使大约40万不堪还贷压力的购房者受益。

美国房地产监测公司“不动产追踪”今年1月29日说，去年全美丧失住房抵押品赎回权的案例数量达到220万件。大约有130万个家庭收到了丧失抵押品赎回权的警告通知，较前年增长了79%。而今年６月，美国国内抵押品赎回权丧失案数量达25.2万件，比去年同期上升53％，平均每５02户居民就有一户房产被收回。其中，不少购房者当初买房时选择浮动利率还贷计划，即在最初几年中以较低利率还贷，但此后因利率逐步提高而月供大幅增加。在房地产市值缩水的情况下，不少购房者被迫放弃还贷。根据参议院批准的计划，陷入上述困境的购房者可以通过还贷重组，参与由联邦住房管理局提供的30年期固定利率还贷计划。美国国会预算局一份报告称，从今年10月1日至２011年9月30日，将有大约220万次级抵押贷款购房者面临支付困难，预计上述救市计划将使大约40万不堪还贷压力的购房者从中受益。

计划还包括总额超过１40亿美元的减免税措施，首次购房者可获最高8000美元的免息贷款。美国州政府将被允许发行总额110亿美元的免税债券，以鼓励发展当地房产市场。

该计划中还提到，联邦住房管理局还将全面改革，新设立一个名为“联邦住房金融局”的监管机构，负责监督“房利美”、“房地美”等住房抵押贷款公司。

Daily Real Estate News  |  July 14, 2008U.S. Senate Passes Housing Stimulus Bill

The U.S. Senate passed a bipartisan mortgage rescue bill on Friday that allows the Federal Housing Administration to refinance troubled mortgages – even those that are under water – as long as banks agree to take a loss.

The program would allow the FHA to help as many as 400,000 homeowners.

Now the bill goes to a bipartisan committee in the House for revision. Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), the Financial Services Committee chairman and a primary supporter of the bill, says the few but significant revisions House leaders seek could be made in as little as one week.

The measure includes higher limits for FHA loans and creates a new regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It also would provide $14.5 billion in housing tax breaks, including a credit of up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers.

In a statement, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® President Richard F. Gaylord said the bill “is a big step toward helping people buy and keep their homes.

“We are eager for the House and Senate to come together to finalize an aggressive bill that will ensure that every American who can afford to own a home and wants to do so will have the opportunity, and that every American who responsibly owns a home is able to keep it,” Gaylord said.

NAR has expressed ongoing support for many of the provisions in the legislation, including Federal Housing Administration Modernization that will make FHA-backed mortgages more available, a tax credit for first-time homebuyers, reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and a program to expand FHA that would allow more mortgages to be refinanced.

“The tax credit for first-time home buyers would be a strong stimulus to a weak housing market, and FHA stabilization should help thousands of families refinance existing mortgages and in many cases keep their homes,” Gaylord said.

Source: NAR, The Associated Press (07/11/08)